[Themaintainers] Maintenance engineering coursework?

Tue Apr 6 18:30:37 EDT 2021

Hi Varun
Many thanks for all your information which I enjoyed.

I thought I might just share some more information on Weibull.  "Weibull analysis" is thought of as a process because there are now a bunch of software packages that support engineers to do this, but all it is the fitting of life data to a Weibull distribution. The Weibull is in a family of distributions such as the Normal Distribution (taught at school), LogNormal, Possion etc. The Weibull fit is also widely used in medicine. Anyway, it is used to plot time to event data, include both failures and suspensions, and the parameters of the fit are used to determine a "shape" parameter and a "location" parameter. The value of the shape parameter gives an indication of "early life failures", "random" failures and "wear out failures", and the location parameter can be used to estimate the mean time between failure.

However it does rely on data! So if you have very few failures it is not a good approach, also if the failures are not random variables that are IID, independent and identically distributed then you should not use a Weibull plot approach. This is one of the reason why it's use in gas pipelines needs to be done carefully as often the events are not IID.

Anyway, many many people use Weibull software packages by plugging in times to events and pressing play. But in reality this approach has some statistical pre-conditions, and does not play nicely when, for example, you have data sets where a large proportion of assets are pre-emptively replaced (we call these suspensions) as happens in the airlines.

Any statistician can teach the mechanics of fitting data to a Weibull plot but few have been taught the significance of the use of the shape and location parameters to reliability engineers!

Happy to share more on this, Melinda

From: themaintainers-bounces at lists.stevens.edu <themaintainers-bounces at lists.stevens.edu> On Behalf Of Varun Adibhatla (ARGO)
Sent: Tuesday, 6 April 2021 10:29 AM
To: krones at bc.edu
Cc: themaintainers at lists.stevens.edu
Subject: Re: [Themaintainers] Maintenance engineering coursework?

Hi Jonathan,

So excited for you and this curriculum! I hope some of the below is helpful to you and your students.

You may be familiar with John Sterman's @ MIT Capability Traps and his work re-engineering MIT's campus infrastructure to avoid such traps. It's summarized in a nice video here<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DBv6vyf8AFD8&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728215146%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=m6N6%2F0L2LrRk9QqAymQqgdhvnvSwgVOyKuzJY8Fyxoc%3D&reserved=0>

Resonating what David Albrecht mentioned earlier, "American Cities are run like Ponzi schemes"<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D7IsMeKl-Sv0&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728225132%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=uNxcyhfankgyswwscmmm%2BHtWqhpRz8WyEKLip%2Fzakjo%3D&reserved=0> is a great explainer of how maintenance is often deferred in lieu of  growth narratives.

My own work over the past 6 years has centered around interrogating our commons (physical and digital) through a lens of leaks, cracks, and holes and designing systems that prioritize proactive maintenance.
I've worked with local governments through Project SQUID<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hackster.io%2Fargo%2Fsquid-street-quality-identification-a43367&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728225132%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=B2fa8AH976sF1ZkpGJpODQNMYenpxdr%2Bb3hpUP2wSfE%3D&reserved=0> an attempt to show how low-cost and frequent digital surveys of street distress (potholes) could change the paradigm to proactive maintenance.
Here's the former commissioner of NYC DOT, Lou Riccio explaining Pothole Analytics<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Du4ohbduvVrM&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728235125%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=6%2B6MHu911zpSsfsG5XVlDQ8p9FDojXRye%2B8Ekq1XhIE%3D&reserved=0>

For the past 2 years, I've worked with US Gas Utilities on the maintenance of Underground Gas Infrastructure.
I've encountered a broad range of maintenance positions - ranging from those who take immense pride in performing regular leak surveys to those who operate on a "what we don't know won't hurt" viewpoint of criminal ignorance.
Some other interesting facts from the Gas Industry. Some of NYC's Gas Pipes built in the late 1800s are in better condition than those in the 1960s. As an anonymous commenter on this NYT article states, "the bean counters" of yore are partly responsible for the sorry state of our infrastructure." and he's right (to an extent)
The McNamara effect of bringing management science into civilian infrastructure operations did result in relatively more brittle infrastructure.
Interestingly, I've also encountered how Weibull analysis (from Reliability Engineering?) a method of forecasting failure in aviation systems has found itself in forecasting breaks in Gas Pipelines.
Your local Gas utility (Boston Gas) may have some amazing first hand knowledge.
Last point re: Underground Infrastructure is how maintaining a National Underground Asset Register saves Japan upto $10 Billion / year in avoiding underground damages.

The Civilian Conservation Corps<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fvimeo.com%2F150192017&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728235125%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=zPxVlcKYetAR4fh12S5lNcEE1BTJ4daMaE2wv6nlEoo%3D&reserved=0> was touted as FDR's Tree Army but really started out educating the public about proper soil maintenance
Nadia Eghbal's explanation of Open Source Stewards and the work it takes to maintain critical open source infrastructure is wonderful<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2F5wLKnN3To-k&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728245121%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=ibL34ekDnKvMaHivKNttpYKY2gcnj9uyXHeBifmnqMk%3D&reserved=0>
The Pruitt-Igoe Myth<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D8CAfACI7LBY&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728245121%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=qjtp825kDTkEqkKtMhme60u6LjLhI7ncLXtFID5lVsw%3D&reserved=0> is a wonderfully made and heart wrenching documentary that tells the story of how one of the largest public housing projects in the country was set up to fail in part because no funds were allocated for operations and maintenance.

Lastly, in the "wake" of the recent blockade of the Suez, my father sailed the high seas for 30+ years, mostly within the noisy engine rooms maintaining 50-100,000 horsepower engines in the middle of nowhere.
His maintenance stories are magnificent and over the pandemic, we recounted one of his more illustrious tales<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fvr00n.medium.com%2Fa-breach-in-the-forecastle-d9c0d3ec0da8&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728255114%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=LL0isVO7z%2BxI%2Byzv83IZQajMtMB0bBpp7c4WuOqNNiI%3D&reserved=0> on the high seas.

PS: I presented a Guild of Leaks, Cracks, and Holes<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fpresentation%2Fd%2F14pU0qJ4CCwsRyT6t0aKOrO7WxJ8pPV10UAXDAYZMLRM%2Fedit%23slide%3Did.g620b1c1846_0_0&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728255114%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=ax%2FYAOUDdpDiRxCGXwdgIK3IdL5fU%2B%2BBFt5Bh47Ag6c%3D&reserved=0> at the last Maintainers conference where I cheekily appropriated JFK's 1962 Moon speech to focus on "the other hard things" than the fabled moonshot. It also has some references to solid articles in the Economist that highlight the importance of Maintenance.

On Mon, Apr 5, 2021 at 8:40 PM Rollie Cole <rolliecole at gmail.com<mailto:rolliecole at gmail.com>> wrote:
I have several relatives who were accountants, one even a professor of accounting. I am all in favor of getting everybody to understand some accounting concepts.

But the example below I find problematical. A $1M road with a 20-year life SHOULD not require zero maintenance for 20 years, then a sudden $1M (plus whatever inflation has done) to replace. Instead, IF it is maintained, it should last not 20 years, but decades beyond that. In the process, the road "owner" might well spend roughly $1M each 20 years, but it should be spread over maintenance all during each 20-year period.

I do agree, however, that many, many (far too many!) cities defer maintenance year after year until replacement is the only option. Accounting is a way to track how bad a practice that is, but does not itself cure the bad practice. It is perhaps necessary, but never sufficient.

On Mon, Apr 5, 2021 at 5:59 AM David Albrecht <albrecht.dr at gmail.com<mailto:albrecht.dr at gmail.com>> wrote:
Rental property operator and software engineer here.

I don't think a course like this is complete without some discussion of accounting. At the risk of stating the obvious, accounting is the accumulated body of knowledge on how to quantify economic activity. Probably half if not more maintenance problems are ultimately rooted in poor accounting, specifically focusing too much on cashflow and not enough on the balance sheet.

Simple but obvious example to illustrate the point. A municipality spends $1 million on a new road with an estimated lifetime of 20 years. Next year, they collect $500k in tax revenue and spend $475k. Yay, a surplus! Cut taxes! Except the simple math of $1 million/20 years for our road shows you need to be tracking the $50k annual wear and tear...somewhere. Most organizations -- many municipalities and unsophisticated rental property operators -- don't do this well, and are caught short when a major capital item hits end-of-life, causing them to scramble to get a loan and fall farther and farther into debt they have no way to service.

I think the solution is to emphasize a culture of continuous, incremental capital replacement in an organization. I haven't seen too many organizations (especially in the public sector) with the discipline to accumulate huge piles of cash for lumpy capital spending, without shenanigans taking place that cause the money to get redirected for other short-term uses. I'd love to know if I'm wrong about this.

On Sat, Apr 3, 2021 at 5:02 PM Melinda Hodkiewicz <melinda.hodkiewicz at uwa.edu.au<mailto:melinda.hodkiewicz at uwa.edu.au>> wrote:
Hi Jonathan,
I am a maintenance engineer and for many years have taught university and executive education courses on maintenance, asset management, reliability, risk and safety. I was Australia's representative on the development of the ISO55000/1/2 set of Asset Management Standards. Maintenance is one of the major elements of asset management. A good reference to all things AM is the GFMAM sute (Global Forum on Maintenance and Asset Management) https://gfmam.org/global-collaboration<https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgfmam.org%2Fglobal-collaboration&data=04%7C01%7Cmelinda.hodkiewicz%40uwa.edu.au%7C2830722b5d9c41a71e7d08d8f92fbc90%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C1%7C0%7C637533330728265109%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=IbyJhUg3kdsGDw3dobjDiIXhrG8BfOULrYrNfFq6V7c%3D&reserved=0>. Their publications page is a useful source of teaching materials.
Can I suggest, all found (for free) on this page.

*       The AM Landscape,

*       The Maintenance Framework, and

*       The Value of Asset Management.
The Maintenance Framework book will be particularly helpful for engineers-in-training as it covers the maintenance management process (identify work (maintenance strategy)-schedule-planning-execution) that they are most likely to be exposed to when they graduate if they work for an asset operating organisation.

About 7 years ago I was asked to develop a one semester class for final year engineers of all disciplines (process, mech, civil, elec, software, chemical, mining) on risk, reliability and safety. Maintenance is covered in detail as it is one of the main ways we manage risk. Attached is an overview of the unit if you are interested. Below is a brief overview:

"The unit aims to provide a holistic an integrated overview of the theory and practice in the fields of risk, reliability and safety, to prepare our engineers for professional practice. The unit develops students' technical and statistical skills and covers the social and organisational contexts, extending the students' field of view beyond the technical to consider the customer and the organisation's needs. The unit is taught to all engineering disciplines in one class to reinforce the need for cross-discipline collaboration and accommodation of different stakeholders and perspectives in risk and safety management."

The class is huge >300 students and taught twice a year. It is co-taught with a statistician and my part (the engineering part) in taught using flipped learning and case study based interactive workshops.

Very happy to share what we have learned over the last 7 years, ideas and materials. We have taught this unit to over 4000 students.
Regards Melinda

Professor Melinda Hodkiewicz
BA Hons (Oxon), PhD, CEng, FTSE
BHP Fellow for Engineering for Remote Operations
Faculty of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences
University of Western Australia
M050, UWA, Crawley, Perth, WA 6009
Melinda.hodkiewicz at uwa.edu.au<mailto:Melinda.hodkiewicz at uwa.edu.au>

From: themaintainers-bounces at lists.stevens.edu<mailto:themaintainers-bounces at lists.stevens.edu> <themaintainers-bounces at lists.stevens.edu<mailto:themaintainers-bounces at lists.stevens.edu>> On Behalf Of Jonathan Krones
Sent: Saturday, 3 April 2021 3:39 AM
To: themaintainers at lists.stevens.edu<mailto:themaintainers at lists.stevens.edu>
Subject: [Themaintainers] Maintenance engineering coursework?

Hi Maintainers,

First time caller, long time lurker. I'm starting work on a new syllabus for an upper-level undergraduate general engineering elective tentatively called "Maintenance Engineering" (although I'll probably need to snazz it up to get any enrollment). The idea is to cover concepts from a variety of engineering fields (e.g., civil, software systems, materials, manufacturing, product design) that relate to issues of maintenance, repair, and other types of life extension of engineered systems. I'm still in early stages and am interested in learning about any similar courses that folks in this community might know. I'm also open to suggestions on topics or concepts that you think should go into a course like this. It will likely be a combination of probability/statistical models, systems engineering concepts, and the engineering science bases of inspection, preventative maintenance, repair and remanufacturing, etc.

Thanks,
Jonathan

--
Jonathan S Krones, PhD
Core Fellow / Visiting Assistant Professor | Boston College
Research Affiliate | MIT Olivetti Research Group
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